Friday, August 22, 2025
Closing Markets: Corn +1 old & -0.25 new.
Beans +2.50 old & new. Wheat -2.25.
TFG will hold our Annual Crop Tour Meetings Tuesday, August 26th
Lincoln, IL at the Knights of Columbus – 8 am for Breakfast!
Monticello, IL at the Monticello Community Building – 12 pm for Lunch!
Insight from Mr. Eric Snodgrass!
PLEASE RSVP WITH ANY ORIGINATOR ASAP!!!
Good evening!
Market Recap-
Happy Friday. Biofuel news was the name of the game to end the week on Friday, with a morning EPA announcement leading bean oil futures to sharp gains of more than 3% for the session. This led to buying in the soybean market also, while the feed grains finished near unchanged in light volume. As we go into the weekend, Pro Farmer will release final US estimates for corn and soybean production later this afternoon and we see this likely driving trade, along with further discussion surrounding biofuels, into the early part of next week.
Corn Summary-
Friday news favored the soy complex today, as there was little input specific to the corn market other than this morning's daily sales flashes. The recent run of sales illustrates the US's improving position in the global market and has been a bright spot amid the otherwise dull backdrop of the massive crop that's looming. Like we mentioned at the top, the Pro Farmer yield number later today will likely key price direction at least early next week, though it remains the case that rallies will likely struggle simply due to the sheer size of the US crop and the fact that the farmer is undersold relative to normal.
Soybean Summary-
The much anticipated EPA ruling regarding small refinery exemptions finally arrived on Friday, though we find it exceedingly unlikely that this is the end of the story. A public comment period now looms over the reallocation of exempted volumes from 2023 and later, which will likely be a slow moving decision. Otherwise, traders will continue to look for further details regarding a potential trade deal with China but will likely be more cautious than recent days due to the Pro Farmer tour finding crop potential that was generally better than what they had expected.
Wheat Summary-
It was a quiet end to the week in the wheat market on Friday, with futures trading small ranges in light volume before ending the day quietly lower. In the case of the Chicago market, that values were able to hold $5 on the week after probing below there and making new contract lows previously is a technically good sign, but key for next week will be whether this level can continue to hold.
Outside News Headlines-
Crude oil futures up $0.10+/bbl.
Weather Updates-
Weekend weather across the Midwest will be rather mild, with the EU model forecast calling for little to no precip over the next 72 hours for the Bulk of the central Corn Belt, while areas to the north and northwest see scattered shoer potential with total generally staying under an inch.
Daytime highs on Saturday will be seen in the 70's/80's, and will be cooling to the 60's/70's by Sunday. The cooler air then looks to linger into next week, with highs remaining well below average.
Week two precip forecasts from both the EU and the GFS are attempting to bring in a return of moisture into the central Midwest into the first week of September, but the run-to-run differences are keeping our confidence in the shift low.
Meanwhile, two weeks out temperature forecasts continue to show little change and are still offering well below average air temps for most of the US east of the Rocky Mountains, while areas west of here, especially in the northwest, will be exceptionally warm.
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Enjoy it!
Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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