Thursday, May 1, 2025

Morning Markets: Corn +2.75 old & +2.25 new.
Beans +0.50 old & +1 new. Wheat +1.25.

MARKET SUMMARY:

Good morning. Happy May Day. Price action seen on Wednesday has largely spilled over into Thursday to start this morning, with the grain markets again higher and the soy complex again lower. Just looking at the fundamentals, we don't see a lot of reason for spot soybean futures to drop much below $10 in the short term with new crop balance sheet projections what they are and the good early season planting progress pointing to an even larger shift in acres from soybeans to corn than was already anticipated. That said, it will be interesting to see what the USDA's assessment of the tariff situation is as it pertains to the new crop balance sheet, and whether we see a sharply lower initial export forecast than was seen in the 2024/25 season. This data on the 12th likely provides the next chance at giving traders something to grab ahold of, with trade likely staying choppy/sideways in the meantime. Corn futures to start Thursday are trading 1-3 cents higher, soybean futures are trading 3-4 cents lower, and the Chicago wheat market is up 1-2 cents. Products are lower, soybean meal is down around $1/ton, and soybean oil is down 30-40 points. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil has continued to slide and is down another $1.10-1.20/bbl this morning, the Dow Jones index is up 330 points, and the US$ index is up 30-40 points; the S&P500 is up 70 points, and the NASDAQ is up 370 points. Gold futures are sharply lower, down around $100/oz.

Crude Oil is down $1.37 at $56.84

US Dollar is up at $99.703

Global Equities: Japan +0.5%, China +0.5%, and Europe +0.3%

Dow futures are up 277 points at 41,047

EU MATIF Exchange: Corn +0.1% and Wheat +0.4%



WEATHER:

Starting with the last 24 hours of weather, satellite data shows the heaviest rainfall totals yesterday mostly in northeast TX, where amounts ranged from 2-3"; IL/MO/IA saw the best moisture for the Corn Belt states according to this data, though totals here were a lesser 0.1-1.5" and were rather variable. On the severe weather side, there were 53 wind reports on Wednesday, along with 43 hail reports, and 4 tornado reports, all mostly in TX/OK/AR. One of the tornado reports was near Effingham, IL, while a handful of the hail reports were also seen in S IL/IN/KY.
Forecasts show additional thunderstorm activity possible through most of the eastern US through today, though rainfall locations/amounts will again be highly variable and difficult to predict. The EU model into early Friday morning shows anywhere from trace amounts to around an inch of rainfall roughly speaking for most of the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys, and more generally for the eastern half of the US excluding FL/GA and the far southeast. Temperatures have trended cooler over the next 5 days as this low-pressure system moves through but are still seen returning to mostly above average levels for most of the Corn Belt into next week.
Extended forecasts into the middle of May continue to be little changed and are holding in offering a warmer/drier pattern for much of the Midwest into May 16th. Like we mentioned yesterday, the exact location of the high-pressure ridge will determine exactly how this forecast plays out and who does/doesn't get rain, but models have been in pretty good agreement on their output for the second week of the month.

OTHER HEADLINES:

The delivery slate for Thursday morning was again active, with the CME Group reporting that another 563 contracts of soybean meal had been assigned, along with 164 contracts of soybean oil, 249 contracts of KC wheat, 80 contracts of Chicago wheat, 25 contracts of corn, 20 contracts of rice, and 3 contracts of soybeans.
The USDA is scheduled to release updated soybean crush and corn grind data this afternoon in its monthly fats and oils and grain crushings reports; traders see the reports showing soybean crush in the month of March at 205.5 mil bu, up 1% compared to last year, while corn grind for ethanol is seen at 459.9 mil bu, which would be down 2.6% from last year. Soybean oil stocks as of March 31st are estimated near 1.952 bil lbs, which would be down nearly 18% from last year.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange didn't have a lot of new news in their weekly crop progress report, which was released late yesterday; the group showed soybean harvest progress in Argentina continuing to lag both last year and average at just 23.6% complete, while corn harvest was seen at 31.3% complete. Conditions saw just marginal changes for both crops, while there were once again no updates made to production estimates.
The group did provide some news on the wheat side though, as they projected planted area in the coming season to reach a record 6.7 million hectares, while production is seen at 20.5 mmt's. If realized, this would be up more than 10% from last year, and more than 20% above the five-year average. Argentina's record wheat production is 22.2 mmt's, which was made in the 2021/22 season.
Data from Ukraine's Ag Ministry, released yesterday, showed grain exports out of the country in the month of April fell by nearly 60% compared to last year to just 2.27 mmt's. By crop, wheat exports in the month were down 56% on the year to just 0.75 mmt's, while corn exports were down more than 60% to 1.46 mmt's. Comments cited a decline in production and reduced carry in stocks from the year prior as the main reasons for the drops.
Sources on both sides announced late yesterday afternoon that the US and Ukraine had reached and signed an agreement in Washington on the much-publicized minerals deal that has been in the news for months now. The deal gives the US preferential access to Ukrainian Rare-Earth minerals and ensures US support for Ukraine's reconstruction following the end of the war via the establishment of a joint investment fund.
As a possible explanation for the continued slide in crude oil prices this morning, news outlets are reporting that officials from Saudi Arabia are telling allies and other industry members that the kingdom is unwilling to continue to prop up oil prices with further supply cuts, adding that they can handle a prolonged period of low prices. Several sources have confirmed the news, which could signal a possible shift in policy following years of held-back production.
The latest on the trade front includes comments from USTR Jamieson Greer yesterday that completed tariff deals are expected in "weeks not months"; Greer added though that the India deal wasn't "finish-line close", which leaves the trade continuing to guess at when such an announcement might be made. Elsewhere, there isn't a lot new on the China front, though the country's state media overnight did report that the White House has reached out regarding discussions.

EXPORT NEWS:

This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending April 24th is expected to show old crop corn sales in a range of 700k-1.5 mil mt's, old crop soybean sales in a range of 150k-600k mt's, and old crop wheat sales in a range of (200k)-300k mt's. New crop sales are again expected to be light, with corn sales seen between 0-200k mt's, soybean sales between 0-100k mt's, and wheat sales seen between 100k-440k mt's.


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Be safe!


Bailey Runyen
Grain Originator | Topflight Grain Coop.
101 N. Main St. | Cisco, IL 61830
Phone :: 217-669-2141
Email :: brunyen@tfgrain.com
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